Fund managers & the investing public tend to be very short-term performance focused. They tend to buy a stock when there is lots of good news (i.e. economy is strong, company’s earnings beats forecast, launch of a new product etc…) that pushes the stock price higher and higher. Consequently, they tend to jump out of a stock when bad news sends the stock price falling. Actually, there is nothing really wrong with this approach.
By doing so, you are investing along with the trend. This strategy is known as ‘momentum investing’ and we are going to be looking at it in the next chapter. However, the danger with ‘momentum investing’ is that it is all about timing and the ability to read into investor psychology.
The trouble is that most average investors who lack these skills jump in too late (after all the professional funds have entered), when the stock price has already risen near its peak! Sure enough, they fi nd that the stock prices start falling the day after. Out of fear and panic, they sell the stock and end up with a loss. This is why the typical investor always experiences their stock price falling soon after they have entered the market.
High Risk, High Return Versus Low Risk, Low Return
While many fi nancial experts preach the concept of having to take high risks in order to make high returns, master investors like Warren Buffett believe that it does not take high risks to make high returns. Instead, it takes a high level of fi nancial and business competence to make high returns!
In fact, he will only make an investment when there is a very low risk of loss and a very high probability of gain. He does this by only investing in companies that are selling way below their true value. In this way, he gives himself a wide margin of error. Which means even if his calculations are off, he will still be making money.
Invest Only when there Is a High Probability of Success
The trouble with professional managers of mutual funds is that they are pressured to invest 80% of their cash into the market, even when there is nothing attractive to buy. This happens after a prolonged bull-run when stock prices are so high that companies are way overvalued.
Fund managers & the investing public tend to be very short-term performance focused. They tend to buy a stock when there is lots of good news (i.e. economy is strong, company’s earnings beats forecast, launch of a new product etc…) that pushes the stock price higher and higher. Consequently, they tend to jump out of a stock when bad news sends the stock price falling. Actually, there is nothing really wrong with this approach.
By doing so, you are investing along with the trend. This strategy is known as ‘momentum investing’ and we are going to be looking at it in the next chapter. However, the danger with ‘momentum investing’ is that it is all about timing and the ability to read into investor psychology.
The trouble is that most average investors who lack these skills jump in too late (after all the professional funds have entered), when the stock price has already risen near its peak! Sure enough, they fi nd that the stock prices start falling the day after. Out of fear and panic, they sell the stock and end up with a loss. This is why the typical investor always experiences their stock price falling soon after they have entered the market.
High Risk, High Return Versus Low Risk, Low Return
While many fi nancial experts preach the concept of having to take high risks in order to make high returns, master investors like Warren Buffett believe that it does not take high risks to make high returns. Instead, it takes a high level of fi nancial and business competence to make high returns!
In fact, he will only make an investment when there is a very low risk of loss and a very high probability of gain. He does this by only investing in companies that are selling way below their true value. In this way, he gives himself a wide margin of error. Which means even if his calculations are off, he will still be making money.
Invest Only when there Is a High Probability of Success
The trouble with professional managers of mutual funds is that they are pressured to invest 80% of their cash into the market, even when there is nothing attractive to buy. This happens after a prolonged bull-run when stock prices are so high that companies are way overvalued.
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